The simple question that never gets asked.

So I was wondering what percent of people in this country, in my generation particularly, believe in God. So...ya...just asking, do you? Please feel free to just put yes or no, or elaborate if you'd like. Thanks.

The Empire Strikes Back?

The American sports fan had plenty to feast on this past Sunday, with a healthy dose of meaningful NFL games on the docket, many of which lived up to their billing. The Raiders went into San Diego and got the franchise their biggest win since their 2003 Super Bowl run. The Falcons hung on for a huge road win in Tampa Bay to stay a game ahead of the defending champs, who also won in a frenzy of a finish. Then we had a can't-miss prime-time match-up between the Steelers and Ravens for control of the AFC North. But somehow, with all of this quality entertainment squeezed onto the sporting stage in one day, and all of it coming from the most popular league in the country, there was still a small blip outside of the NFL that was appearing on many sports fans' radars, and as the afternoon grew later this blip grew more and more noticeable until many of us had to momentarily pull ourselves away from football. We were captivated by something that we weren't sure we'd ever be captivated by again; one of our fallen heroes had a chance to capture a sliver of redemption.

Tiger Woods made plenty of headlines in 2010, but most were away from the golf course

Sure it wasn't the Masters, but the discussion of whether or not Tiger Woods would eventually break Jack Nicklaus' record of 18 major championships--well that's been on hold for a long time now. Now golf fans were just wondering whether or not he'd win another tournament, let alone a major. And that's why this Sunday, during the final round of the otherwise non-descript Chevron World Challenge, the last tournament of this PGA season, the gaze of the sports world breifly shifted back towards Tiger. But this time the story wasn't whether or not a golfer chasing Tiger would be able to do what was previously unthinkable and overtake his 3-shot lead coming into the final round. The story was not about the steady and opportunistic play of this year's U.S. Open Champion Graeme McDowell who buried two long birdie putts down the stretch. No, the story was the fitting end to a trying year for golf's former No. 1 player.

Tiger watches his approach on 18 Sunday, he would birdie the hole to force a playoff

For the first time in his career, he lost a 3-shot lead after 54 holes, and finished the year without winning a tournament. Winner Graeme McDowell's comments after the final round echoed what many of us could see for ourselves as he out-dueled Tiger on the 18th and again in the sudden death playoff, "He used to appear invincible," McDowell said, "Of course, he's made himself appear more human in the last 12 months." How many times have we seen great players shrink under the pressure of Tiger Woods' shadow as they line up a critical putt? It used to be his presence alone was enough to ensure that when he needed a putt to break left, it would, and when his opponent needed the same, it wouldn't. But tied for the lead on Sunday, Graeme McDowell watched Tiger land closer to the pin on 18, only to drain his long birdie putt as Tiger looked on. Then on the playoff hole Tiger stuck another great approach, leaving what looked to be a much more manageable putt that McDowell's. But again McDowell, unshaken by Tiger's stare, drained his birdie, placing all of the pressure back on Tiger. And we all know it wasn't just the pressure of the Chevron World Challenge. It was the pressure of a winless year, a drop from the No. 1 ranking, a fall from grace.

It's hard to believe that all of these things weren't running through his mind as he got ready for what would be the final putt of his worst year as a pro. But what was running through the mind of the fans? The real golf fans? From what I gathered, and I have a feeling that most golf fans share this sentiment to at least some degree, everyone watching that putt was disappointed as it slid past the hole. Not because Tiger didn't win the Chevron World Challenge, but because of what it means for golf. Tiger Woods is more than the greatest golfer who ever lived, even if he's not the greatest golfer who ever lived. Tiger Woods was the embodiment of excellence in his craft, and he built an empire around that excellence. He owned Nike. He owned Gatorade. He owned the PGA. He owned golf. He didn't leverage his personality or publicity stunts to gain notoriety. He just won.

Graeme McDowell didn't falter in the midst of Tiger's shadow

No one had ever been so dominant as Tiger Woods in any sport, and to do it in a sport like golf, where mental focus can outweigh physical ability on any given stroke, was what made it all the more impressive. That's why it's been no surprise to golf fans that Tiger, as a player, has become a shell of his former self. There is no other professional sport in which the personal turmoil that Tiger has endured would have a more significant impact on performance. But here he was, on the last day of the last tournament of 2010, in position to win. To some, he didn't deserve to. To some, he's just another flawed athlete to root against. But to the fans who appreciated the way he built an empire through winning alone, we couldn't help but pull for him in this moment. We love winners; we love comebacks, and Tiger Woods has a chance to write one of the best comeback stories of our generation. But it didn't start Sunday.

What's in a name? You'll have to roll the dice to find out

For teams in the middle of the pack, trying to find a way to improve and make a playoff run, it’s time to make a gamble and trade a big name for a big producer. Every year there are players who have preformed so well and so consistently in the past, that many fantasy owners don’t notice their numbers tapering off during a mediocre year. Chances are, if you’ve found yourself struggling to stay in the playoff hunt, you probably have at least one of these guys on your roster. Now is the time to trade that player for a lesser name that is poised to produce for you down the stretch. The goal here is to rid yourself of an underachieving star and pluck an blossoming stud from an unsuspecting victim looking for help at a certain position. To give you an idea of some of the possibilities, let’s take a look at which players aren’t living up to the names on the back of their jerseys.

Quarterbacks: Tom Brady, Matt Schaub

Tom Brady is producing wins on the field, but not in many fantasy lineups

By no means are Brady or Schaub fantasy busts, but that’s the beauty of it. Teams who are struggling at quarterback will gladly look at Brady or Schaub as an upgrade, but in reality, you can probably find very comparable production for the likes of Eli Manning, Matt Ryan or even Matt Stafford. If you’re struggling at WR and have a chance to unload Tom Brady, you could target a player like Greg Jennings or Anquan Boldin in a straight up trade, putting a top 15 WR right into your lineup while rolling the dice on a lesser name at QB. Sure, you took Brady in the second round, but it’s crunch time, and if you’re trying to claw your way into the playoffs, Tom Brady’s not going to carry you.

Wide Receivers: Miles Austin, Brandon Marshall, Randy Moss

Three big names, three big targets and three guys with the potential to score 13 fantasy points in the blink of an eye. But they could also swipe you some big-time help in other areas if you’re willing to part with them. It’s not hard to find a team that’s looking for help at WR, so take advantage. There are a lot of ways to go about this, but the key is to piece together a deal that uses their name value against another player’s production value. Need help at RB? Why not go after an unheralded guy like Ahmad Bradshaw or Peyton Hillis packaged with a lesser name at wide receiver, maybe a Mike Williams or a Michael Crabtree? It might not look as pretty to see your lineup suddenly absent of a name like Marshall or Moss, but if you can get someone to bite on that big name and give you quality depth in return, it’s time to roll the dice. Remember, the wide receiver position is the most variable, anyone can explode one weekend and become invisible the next.

Ahmad Bradshaw is ready to run you into the playoffs, if you're willing to roll the dice

Running Backs: Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew

It’s always hard to part with that first round draft pick that you wanted to build your championship team around, but if you are looking to upgrade your lineup and you’ve got one of these guys, it might be time to see if you can fleece somebody. As mentioned before, guys like Peyton Hillis and Ahmad Bradshaw are putting up comparable numbers, and should continue to do so. So the goal here is to package your big name with a low-value player at whichever position you’re looking to improve, and go after a package of lesser names that will deliver much more value. On draft day it would seem absurd to send away Maurice Jones-Drew and Steve Smith for Ahmad Bradshaw and Hakeem Nicks, but if you can pull something like this off, your team is better. Yes it hurts to lose MJD and the potential he brings every week, but if you’re no longer content sitting idly and waiting for your big names to translate into wins, these are the opportunities that you need to create for yourself.

Sure you took him 5th overall, but it's time to bite the bullet on MJD

Again, none of these big names have been busts this year, but they haven’t lived up to the expectations that their names carry. It’s not always easy to identity a player’s real value when they fall into this category, and that’s why a savvy owner who is looking to improve, and willing to gamble, can get valuable players in return for one big name.

Pack it in?

Mason Crosby's 53-yard field goal with time about to expire on Sunday looked good enough as it sailed toward the uprights, offering a brief moment of relief for the Packers after an ugly and potentially costly battle with a team that, like last week, they looked primed to blow out. They had once again let a team hang around after taking an early double-digit lead, but Crosby's booming kick would provide them an escape, and they would have a 4-1 record with two more games to limp through before the bye week. They were fine.

But almost as suddenly as Crosby's kick dove to the left and smacked against the left goal post, the Packers had gone from fine to something else entirely. And who's to blame? Mason Crosby, who missed two second half field goals? Aaron Rodgers, who failed to lead a scoring drive in the second half, and threw the decisive interception in overtime? The injury fairy? All of these things played their part, but the underlying reason that Green Bay lost this game, and maybe its quarterback, was head coach Mike McCarthy's blatant refusal to do one thing that I heard cheeseheads clamoring for him to do the entire second half; RUN THE #$%*?^@ BALL!

Mike McCarthy's second half play-calling left Packer fans scratching their heads

During the fourth quarter and overtime Green bay ran 20 offensive plays; 17 were passes, 3 were rushes. And remember, they were playing with the lead for almost the entire game. There was a stretch in the fourth quarter spanning two drives during which the Packers called eight pass plays in a row. Essentially, everyone in the building knew that every play was going to be a pass. And unfortunately for the Packers, that included the Redskins defense, which was allowed to tee off against Aaron Rodgers with every snap of the ball. It's no surprise he seemed to struggle down the stretch.

And remember, this was Green Bay's plan of attack while playing with the lead. This was Green Bay's plan of attack while their injury-laden defense continued to stop Washington and preserve the 10-point lead. But instead of salting away the game, Mike McCarthy did all he could to make sure his defense would keep getting tested until finally they gave up a big play. Even if the running game had proven to be ineffective, which it hadn't, Mike McCarthy's execution and play selection in this type of game was absolutely indefensible, and ultimately it cost his team more than just a game.

Rodgers was leveled in overtime, long after the game should have been put away

Aaron Rodgers did make some mistakes, and certainly his interception in overtime could have been avoided. (And also could have been nullified by a roughing the passer penalty). It's not fair to pin this loss on him though, and it's also misguided to assume he's not a clutch performer. Remember what he showed us late in the season last year against the Steelers. Remember how literally unstoppable he was as he guided the Packers to a 21-point comeback in the playoffs by tossing five touchdowns on the road. There's no question he has it in him; the question marks belong to the head coach. Mike McCarthy has an impressive resume, but has been shaky at best and awful at worst in 2010. I'm sure he's praying for Aaron Rodgers' speedy return, but in the meantime, he might try running the ball.

What's your 2010 NFL playoff wish?

My wish involves seeing this happen at the Metrodome.

Everyone loves to break down the NFL playoffs.  Which stars are primed to help their teams make a run?  Which powerhouse would match up best with the others?  Which wild card team is built to make a run by winning on the road?  Maybe the one that's 3-1 in their last four road games, the only loss coming on a last second touchdown in Pittsburgh.  There is just a bit too much invested in the coming games for me to rationally forecast the outcomes, but I still like to try.  So do note that while what you read here is what I truly believe as an NFL fan, it may be a bit clouded by the parts you read in italics, which is what I believe as a die-hard Packers fan, and a newly ordained Colts-hater.  This is my prediction/wish for the 2010 NFL playoffs, one that is ripe with some of the greatest stories I've ever seen.

For the first time ever, we have three first round games that are rematches of week 17 games, and the two in the NFC will be played at the same venue.  Sure, the Packers victory over the Cardinals didn't mean anything as far as playoff seedings were concerned, but the Cowboys victory over the Eagles not only won them the NFC East, it gave the No. 2 seed and a first round bye to the Minnesota Vikings. It also set up a rematch in Dallas this Saturday.  Surely Cowboys fans are nervous about having to face the Eagles a third time this year, and the fact that Tony Romo has never won a playoff game, but part of me has a feeling that there's a reason that the Cowboys have beaten the Eagles this year; they're better.  After all, if the Eagles win, that would mean the Packers would be playing for a chance to meet the Vikings in the Divisional round, and we all know that's a matchup destined for a more premium stage.  I'll take the Cowboys to make the third time a charm against the Eagles and the third time a charm for Tony Romo (0-2) in the playoffs.

This scene should finally be a distant memory.

Did we learn anything from Green Bay's 33-7 win in Arizona this week? Just that you can tank a game and not even try, and still lose two starters.  As of now it looks like both Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Anquan Boldin will miss the playoff game due to injuries suffered on Sunday.  This is a big blow on both sides of the ball, and with Green Bay's passing and rushing attacks running on all cylinders, I doubt a Boldin-less Arizona attack will keep up against a defense that finished the season ranked No. 2 overall.  One more big playoff factor: turnovers.  Kurt Warner threw 14 interceptions this year compared to Aaron Rodgers' 7, and the Packers led the NFL in interceptions on defense with 30.  I'll take the Packers to make their win Sunday look like a preview.

So what about the other team that lost a key starter on Sunday?  The Patriots losing Wes Welker looks like a case in favor of resting your starters before the playoffs.  That's why they have to beat the Ravens. Sure, it's a huge blow.  But the Patriots are not a team that tanks games.  They run up the score.  They go for 19-0.  Sure, they lost the Super Bowl that year, but they got there, and they played in a great game.  Oh, and they have three other rings to console them. They've always done it this way, so they can't second-guess themselves now.  They still have weapons, and if Tom Brady and Randy Moss show up, they can beat anyone.  Joe Flacco doesn't look like a quarterback about to win a playoff game in New England; I'll take the Patriots to rebound and head to San Diego.

 Losing Wes Welker hurt, but it didn't kill New England's chances.

Then there's the other rematch.  The Jets just destroyed the Bengals in New York, but I don't think we'll see the same thing happen in Cincinnati.  The Bengals can run the ball, and they will with Cedric Benson back in the lineup.  Also, is Mark Sanchez really winning a road playoff game in his rookie season?  I'll take the Bengals to get real, and get revenge.

So that's cool.  We get three rematches, Tony Romo gets his first playoff win, Aaron Rodgers does too (on his first try), and we've still got Brett Favre and Peyton Manning coming up.  This is shaping up to be a playoff to remember.  But the stories of the greatest intrigue are primed for Championship Sunday, which means we need a couple of things to go right first.  It starts in the AFC with the Patriots and Colts somehow finding a way to meet for a rematch.  I don't think it's hard to see the Colts beating the Bengals at home.  They're obviously better.  But how can a Welker-less Patriots team beat the Chargers who have won 11 straight?  Same way they beat the Ravens; because they have to.  The Patriots can do this.  They have Tom Brady, and that coach.  Surely he can outwit Norv Turner who's never won a meaningful game.  Well, not that meaningful anyways.  I'll take the Colts and Patriots to win and meet in a rematch of one of 2009's greatest regular season games.

A greater rematch could occur in the NFC Championship game.  And it has to.  The Cowboys are good.  The Vikings, at the Metrodome, are great.  Also, one at a time Tony, you had a great game at home against the Eagles, but it's time for the big boys to play.  See you next year.  So that takes care of one half, but the Packers still have to get through New Orleans.  Remember though, this is a New Orleans team that's lost three straight games.  Sure they got a week of rest, but are they really that much better than Green Bay?  No.  They're good, but Green Bay's hot.  And isn't there a rule that one Wild Card team has to get hot and win at least two games every year?  They can get it done anywhere, and they'll find a way in New Orleans.  In a postseason full of rematches, the Packers will get one more shot at Brett Favre and the Vikings.

Why do I want to see a Patriots vs. Colts rematch so badly?  Because I can't get over the Colts blowing their chance at perfection.  Shouldn't that be something desired as much as one Super Bowl ring?  One team has done it.  No team has done it since the schedule expanded to 16 games.  Why scoff at a chance at history?  It didn't feel right to me. So they'll learn their lesson.  Yes, the Colts will be heavily favored because of Welker's absence, a fact that suggests they are the wise ones for resting their stars.  But it could have been the 17-0 Colts going against the only other team who's ever been 18-0.  Thanks for depriving us of that Jim Caldwell, as if you had the right.  A rusty Colts team whose starters have only played one full game in a month will be taken by surprise by a Patriots team with a chip on its shoulder.  I used to dislike Bill Belichick.  I didn't like his fourth down call at Indianapolis this season.  But I'm changing my mind.  The guy might do things that we think are outrageous; he might even be a little pompous.  But he's won three Super Bowls this decade and gone to one other.  Why are we questioning him?  I'll take New England to get back to the big one for the fifth time in nine years.

Jim Caldwell proved to me he's no Belichick.

So that leaves the game that could actually steal the nickname "The Big One" away from the Super Bowl.  Brett Favre against the Packers, one more time.  Two teams whose last home NFC Championship appearance ended in a heartbreaking overtime defeat.  Yes, the Vikings beat the Packers twice this year, but that was months ago. The Packers finished the season 7-1, while the Vikings finished 5-3. Still, the Vikings haven't lost at home, in fact they've looked great at home down the stretch.  But this is a season about lessons, and it's time that the Ted Thompson haters, Favre included, learned theirs. Favre knew what he was doing when he left Green Bay, and it was a slap in the face to join their rivals.  He got his laughs in the regular season, but now we'll see why Ted Thompson let him go.  He's not a winner in the playoffs.  He never really has been.  In his MVP days he was good enough to lead a great Packers team to one Super Bowl. Now he's 40.  The Packers didn't pick him off once in their first two meetings.  They're due.  Favre's due.  It might be close, but he'll melt down to the pressure of the possibility of Aaron Rodgers, Ted Thompson's first ever draft pick, beating him in the playoffs.  There are a few other Ted Thompson draft picks that might have an impact on this game as well: Jermichael Finley, Greg Jennings, Nick Collins, A.J. Hawk, and Clay Matthews.  Oh, and his only big-time free agent signing since joining the Packers, the current favorite for Defensive Player of the Year, Charles Woodson, might make a play or two.  I'll take the Packers to ride their hot streak to Miami and the Super Bowl.

Here's to this meeting going a little differently on January 24.

This is where my wish ends.  I've already speculated enough. I don't need to break down a Packers vs. Patriots Super Bowl that exists only in my head.  Also, I'm pretty sure the insanity of a Packers playoff win at the Metrodome might kill me.  Like I said, that's the big one.  

So, what's your wish?

_________________

Usual Suspect: Manning's case for MVP is too compelling

-----

It's week 13, and even though there is over a month left of football to be played before we even get to the playoffs, it seems like as good a time as any to begin posturing about who will win this year's MVP award. With no disrespect towards the season Chris Johnson is having in Tennessee, there seems to be a clearly defined three-man race for the award this year, and its between three polished passers who have their teams playing at an elite level. The 11-0 Colts, 11-0 Saints and 10-1 Vikings not only own the league's three best records, but also the league's three best quarterbacks in 2009. Sound like what you expected back in August? Maybe the Colts don't surprise you, but the Saints and Vikings have impressed beyond expectations, and it's because of the guys under center.

Drew Brees' Saints may be the best team in the NFL in 2009

Drew Brees is having an enormous statistical season, and while his leadership has been extremely impressive, it has been his ability to consistently make every throw on the field that has vaulted him to the level of Brady and Manning. Meanwhile, the guy who was on his own level before Brady, Manning or Brees were even getting paid to play, Brett Favre has decided to put together the best statistical year of his career, at the age of 40. He's making it look almost too easy in Minnesota, and if his arm holds up in December he will likely post career bests for TD-INT ratio and passer rating. And just to remind you, that's a career in which Favre has already won three MVP awards.

So while Brees and Favre certainly bring a lot to the discussion and would be fun picks for the award, it's Peyton Manning, the only other three-time MVP, who deserves to win. Football isn't a highly statistical sport, but some key numbers should be taken into consideration when looking at these three explosive candidates. All are putting up huge passing stats, and even though Manning's are on the surface the least impressive of the three, if you look closer, you may have to consider them the most impressive.

None of Favre's three MVP seasons looked quite this good statistically

Manning has 24 touchdowns, 11 interceptions and a 102.5 passer rating through 11 games. Brees has 27 touchdowns, 9 interceptions and a league-best 112.6 rating. Favre has 24 touchdowns, 3 interceptions and a 112.1 rating. These are comparable numbers for all three, but look what Manning has done in his last three games. In easily the worst stretch of the year for Manning, he has managed to beat the New England Patriots after trailing by 17, win at Baltimore after trailing in the fourth quarter and win at Houston after trailing again by 17. Yes, he threw a total of six picks in those three games, but he still managed to post a passer rating in the mid-90s and, more importantly, win all three games with fourth quarter comebacks, something that Brees and Favre, through no fault of their own, have not had to do often.

But we can put aside Manning's late winning drives and the ability to keep his team focused when trailing by double digits; we've seen Brees and Favre come from behind and win close games with exciting second half performances. There is still a lot of statistical evidence to indicate that Manning is clearly more valuable to his team than anyone in the league. We'll start with his league-best 310.5 passing yards a game. This is a staggering number that Favre and Brees aren't close to. This, coupled with the fact that the three quarterbacks have similar touchdown numbers, means its only Manning's uncharacteristically high interception total that is keeping him from having significantly better overall numbers than Brees or Favre. Nonetheless, he leads the league in passing yards, and the Colts lead the league in passing offense. This is of even higher importance when you realize the Colts rank second to last in rushing yards per game, which emphasizes just how much Manning means to this offense.

The airshows that the Vikings and Saints have put on have hidden the fact that they both rank in the top ten in rushing yards per game, the Saints at 5th and the Vikings at 9th. These two offenses are extremely balanced, making defenses unable to key on stopping the pass all game, like they can against the Colts. Yet somehow Manning still posts a better completion percentage than Brees or Favre, who have weapons like Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor, Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush to keep defenses guessing. There is no doubt that quarterbacks thrive when great running attacks keep pressure off of them. Favre and Brees have enjoyed that luxury, while Manning has had to carry the Colts on every key drive. Can you remember any team with such a one-sided attack being able to start a season 11-0? It can't happen without Manning.

Mannings 4th quarter heroics could give him an edge in MVP voting

These three quarterbacks have relatively similar individual statistics, all worthy of MVP consideration. But it is the statistics that put each player in the context of what he means to his team that point to Manning as the clear choice. Some of it is intangible; all you have to do is take Manning out of Indianapolis and the Colts' offense would resemble something much closer to the Cleveland Browns. That's something you probably can't say about Minnesota or New Orleans. Oh, and if you think opposing teams don't get flustered by Manning, I'll refer you to Week 10, Bill Belichik, fourth and two. He doesn't make that call if the opposing team's quarterback isn't Peyton Manning. Favre and Brees are having extraordinary years, and their teams wouldn't be what they are without them. But you can't say that either of them, or anyone else in recent history, has meant to their franchise what Peyton Manning means to the Colts right now.

Play of the Day Week 10: Belichick's Gamble Comes up Snake Eyes

-----

It's the morning after and a lot of us are still asking ourselves; did that really happen? Well, even though the answer is yes, that did happen, the only person who's going to have to get themselves checked is the HOF-bound head coach of the New England Patriots. At least for now he's still HOF-bound, but a few more blunders of last night's magnitude might open that question back up for debate.

Alright, in all seriousness Bill Belichick's legacy probably won't be tarnished much by one call in one game, but this huge misstep has seriously altered the Patriots' season and essentially stripped them of any hope of having home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. The 9-0 Colts now hold a 3 game edge over New England, plus the tie-breaker. Had the Pats been able to hold on and win, not only would they hold the tie-breaker and only be 1 game behind, but they'd have ended Indianapolis' 17 game regular season winning streak and re-asserted themselves among the NFL's most elite teams. So why, which so much at stake, did Bill Belichick decide to gamble?

Sure, his offense had racked up over 450 yards in the game, it's understandable that he could expect them to pick up 2 more to seal the win. Sure, his defense had allowed back to back long scoring drives in the fourth quarter. Sure Peyton Manning looked unstoppable on those drives, while New England's young defense looked gassed. It's not hard to see that Belichick, and any New England fan for that matter, would not want to give the ball back to the Colts no matter where they were on the field. But as a head coach, you don't send that kind of message to your defense. You don't gamble that deep in your own territory.

Belichick gambled a lot more than field position on Sunday night

Imagine what you were thinking the moment the ball was actually snapped on 4th and 2; probably something like: My God, he's actually going for it, I can't believe he's risking so much field position. Now, imagine what every player on New England's defense was thinking, proabbly something like: Our coach doesn't even want to put us on the field to stop them from 75 yards away. Ouch.

Then the play unfolded. Brady made a completion near the first down marker, and it looked like maybe none of this would matter, because the Pats had gotten the first down and won the game. But as the referee spotted the ball, three crucial realities set in: 1; it was being spotted behind the first down marker, 2; Bill Belichick had already used up all of his timeouts, so he could not challenge the spot, 3; there were exactly 2 minutes left in the game, and automatic replay review only occurs with under 2 minutes to play. A surreal scenario had arrived on a play that will be remembered for the fact that it probably should have never occured, rather than for the great effort by the players on each team to make sure the football ended up on their side of the orange stick. The Colts, who trailed by 17 eariler in the quarter, were now 29 yards away from taking the lead.

Remember what the New England defense was thinking just moments before? Gee, coach really has a lot of faith in us, he won't even punt and give us a chance to stop them from 75 yards away. Well, they were now taking the field, and the task was the same, just that the field was now shortened to 29 yards. This is the critical point that makes the coaching move indefensible. By sending this message to your defense, you take away any chance that they'll come up with a stop if you do fail on 4th and 2. I was wondering why Belichick didn't just run out onto the field and concede the game right there. He didn't trust his defense, and now his defense was his only hope.

I've seen all the supposed "in depth NFL stats" that point to Belichick's call as the statistically correct one. It's hard for me to give these stats much credit when we all saw what happened. But for those of you who are on the trendy bandwagon of defending the call that all of us knew was flat out wrong as it was happening, I'll humor you. Apparently, advanced NFL stats say that 60% of the time, New England (or whatever team is in that same position) will convert on 4th and 2. If they don't, then Indianapolis will score a touchdown to win 53% of the time from that spot on the field. With those two stats combined, going for it on 4th down will result in New England winning 79% of the time. Punting to about the 20-30 yard line would give Indianapolis a 30% chance of scoring the necessary touchdown, meaning a punt would result in New England winning 70% of the time. Thus, he must have made the right call.

What these stats don't take into account though is the deflated feeling a defense has when their coach basically tells them he doesn't want to see them on the field with the game on the line. When New England failed to convert, the game was over. The Colts didn't have a 53% chance of scoring, it was much closer to 100%, and all of us watching knew that. But I'm done humoring the statisticians. Numbers can be fun, but football is our favorite sport because it's so much more than numbers. A team can be out-played and out-gained all night, and a big play, or a big mistake in this case, can change everything in one instant. Let's not take anything away from the Colts, they made the plays to win this game, and they may have still won it had Belichick decided to punt. But the fact is he didn't, and it may have cost his team the biggest game of the year. Perhaps more importantly though, by not trusting his defense, he may have lost his defense's trust in him.

-----